Who posted the following:
I don’t know how to do the EV calcs but I’ll throw some numbers out there.
The Pats 4th down conversion rate on the year was around 78%.
If the Pats convert, they win. If they don’t, they lose around 85% of the time based on the momentum of the game and giving up good field positioning to the Colts.
If they punt, they win around 80% of the time. Even the great Peyton Manning would have a tough time going 70-75 yards with only one timeout.
Why give the Colts a real good chance to win the game 1/4th the time when they can just punt it and win 80% of the time?
My numbers might be slightly off, but they’re close.
Bad call.
I think those numbers you are using are way off.
A 4th and 2 conversion rate for the Pats since Tom Brady took over has been 78% but the league rate is 60%. Given that the Colts are a significantly above average defense, we can take a number somewhere in between.
After punting, an average NFL team in the Colts shoes is going to score 30% of the time. If the conversion fails, an average NFL team is going to score 53% of the time.
Here is the link to stats – http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html
I think there are a couple errors in the methodology:
1) 4th and 2 conversion rate needs to be adjusted to above 60%
2) the 30% and 53% figures need to be increased because the offense is more potent than the defense
Overall, however, this results in a similar conclusion as the poster comes to, or one that favors Belichick’s decision even more.
November 17th, 2009 at 8:43 pm
Consider this: Even using Billy S’s (crazy) numbers, the math says go for it. He’s made our point.
His numbers:
go for it: (.78 * 1) + (.22 * (1 – .80)) = .824 Win
punt: .80 Win
His thinking error is clear. He says, “Why give the Colts a real good chance to win the game 1/4th the time when they can just punt it and win 80% of the time?” This ignores the part about the Patriots taking a shot at 1st down. They didn’t just take a knee. That would be bad. Let’s assess the decision not the result.
He says the Colts are 80% from the Patriots’ 30 yd line, and yet only 20% from their own 30 yd line. That’s funny.
Apropos, when is a coach going to go for 2 after a TD every time? I’ve been waiting. In the first half, at least. The Patriots can convert (not to mention, say, the Florida Gators) 60%+ of the time, right? (2 * .6) >>>>> (1)
November 17th, 2009 at 11:09 pm
It makes sense in college because the 2pt conversion rate is higher but in the NFL, converting a 4th and 2 f/ midfield is way easier than converting a 4th and goal f/ the 2 because you have more of the field to work with. That’s why the respective conversion rates are 60% and ~ 45%.
November 21st, 2009 at 6:31 pm
There’s a pretty good article by Bill Simmons about this play. Check it out here: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmonsnflpicks/091120
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:08 pm
How can you not eat Sacco Pizza in Hell’s Kitchen?
December 13th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
If it’s neopolitan style, I will put it on my list and def check it out next time I’m in the neighborhood.