Who posted the following:
I don’t know how to do the EV calcs but I’ll throw some numbers out there.
The Pats 4th down conversion rate on the year was around 78%.
If the Pats convert, they win. If they don’t, they lose around 85% of the time based on the momentum of the game and giving up good field positioning to the Colts.
If they punt, they win around 80% of the time. Even the great Peyton Manning would have a tough time going 70-75 yards with only one timeout.
Why give the Colts a real good chance to win the game 1/4th the time when they can just punt it and win 80% of the time?
My numbers might be slightly off, but they’re close.
Bad call.
I think those numbers you are using are way off.
A 4th and 2 conversion rate for the Pats since Tom Brady took over has been 78% but the league rate is 60%. Given that the Colts are a significantly above average defense, we can take a number somewhere in between.
After punting, an average NFL team in the Colts shoes is going to score 30% of the time. If the conversion fails, an average NFL team is going to score 53% of the time.
Here is the link to stats – http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html
I think there are a couple errors in the methodology:
1) 4th and 2 conversion rate needs to be adjusted to above 60%
2) the 30% and 53% figures need to be increased because the offense is more potent than the defense
Overall, however, this results in a similar conclusion as the poster comes to, or one that favors Belichick’s decision even more.
