Follow me on twitter @Maroonlime.

I’m getting out to Vegas in a couple of days and will be providing chip count updates via twitter.  The first event I’m going to play is the $5k NLHE tourney on June 8th.

If your ace is pitching a shutout and your team gets up 6+ runs, why not just put him on the bench right then and throw out a reliever to pitch the rest of the game?  I see two benefits.

1.  You get to possibly bring back your ace on short rest if his pitch count is really low.

2.  Your ace’s chances of going down with a shoulder injury are reduced.

The reliever gets taxed a bit and maybe once or twice a year you blow a 6+ run lead but I think saving your ace and/or pitching him more often in more important situations outweigh these negatives.

I was out a few nights ago and one of my friends was talking about how this other guy we both know throws a football like a girl.  Nothing misogynistic was being said but the average guy throws a football w/ decent form whereas most girls shotput it.  A girl who was part of our party was getting really offended and started venting that not all girls throw with poor form.  I confronted her about this and explained that he was merely making a generalization.  She interrupts and says “I HATE GENERALIZATIONS!”  I had to hold in the potential tirade.

No one is saying every guy on the planet throws better than every girl.  Why is it that every time someone makes a generalization, some “easily offended” type person finds it necessary to argue that it isn’t true for all situations.  Duh.  That’s why it’s a generalization.  We acknowledge that it isn’t true for every situation but if you can’t understand that there is information to be gained by knowing that on average, women can multitask better than men or men are more logical than women, then you need to go back to grade school.

Pretty much everything is a generalization to some extent.  You can say that Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball, but what about if you had to factor in age?  Now you might take Hanley Ramirez over him.  You can say that San Diego has the best weather of any city in the USA, but what about in the winter when you can go to the beach in places like South FL but not in San Diego?

The weather in Melbourne has been incredibly unpredictable.  There have been days where it feels like it’s 80 degrees out at noon and then an hour later the temperature drops 15-20 degrees.  Overall it’s been a little unseasonably cool but beautiful.  I’ve gotten two rounds of golf in and plan to get a couple more in before I come back to NYC.  We saw about 1,000 flying foxes at the end of one hole (picture to come) perched on a few trees and these really cool bright green/blue birds.  Have yet to see a snake, kangaroo, or koala.  Apparently there’s a place 90 minutes away where we can see Penguins.

I’ve steadily been drinking beers most days and because the NFL playoff games this past weekend were shown here at 5 and 8:30 AM, sometimes the beer drinking has started as early as 8 AM.  I’m on vacation though so it’s OK.  So far, Fat Yak has been my favorite local beer but the others I’ve tried have been pretty good too (James Squire, Cascade, and Victoria Bitter in that order).

We went out for one of my friend’s gf’s birthdays Monday night and it went from a we won’t be out to0 late night to a karaoke filled, breathalyzer blowing, debaucherous party.  They have breathalyzers all around the casino and you can put in a dollar and check your BAC.  I think I blew a .186 and then .171 a few hours later.  One of DC EP’s hit a .212.  I think it’s funny that the purpose of these things is to make sure you are OK to drive but pretty much everyone I saw checking their BAC was competing with friends to get it as high as possible.

The casino culture here is unbelievably ridiculous.  You are not comped drinks and you are not allowed to celebrate a big hand or the dealer busting and everyone at the table winning.  It’s basically just an anti-fun policy.  If you appear to be having too much fun, they will ask you to leave.

The food has been pretty mediocre.  Melbourne is supposed to be the restaurant capital of Australia and most everyone here has agreed that there have been very few decent meals.  Surprisingly, one of the meals that most people hated was a top 3 rated steakhouse and I had my best meal of the trip there.  I ordered an awesome beet salad, a fried goat cheese appetizer, and some sort of gingery pasta dish.  If any locals are reading this, please please recommend us some good restaurants.

The service has been otherworldly bad with only a couple of exceptions.  At the steakhouse, we waited about 90 minutes before we were even served bread.  The first time the waitress came to take our order, we asked her how many of one of the appetizers would be a good amount for the table and after she suggested a number and we started discussing, she decided to just leave and go take another table’s order.  This would’ve been fine if she waited 30 seconds and then said “would you like me to come back?”, but no, she just left…and didn’t come back until she had served/waited on 3 other tables and 15 minutes had gone by.  Similarly, when she finally started taking our order, someone asked her a question about one of the items on the menu.  Instead of even asking “I can check on that if you’d like”, she without any hand motion indicating she’d be back just puts on a grumpy face and disappears for 5 minutes.  At this point, there is no question worth answering that we’d be willing to wait 5 minutes for.  We are starving.  Communication is good, lady.

I happen to think that tipping culture in the USA has gotten completely out of control and only a few things really should warrant a gratuity.  Tipping for service at a restaurant is definitely one thing that results in better overall service and it has shown most times I’ve been out of the country.

Compared to a lot of other places I’ve been, the locals here have been extremely friendly and it’s hard to really see any sort of anti-American sentiment that we would experience in a lot of European countries.  At one of the two places where we actually had good friendly service, (small cafe w/ 4 tables) the lady behind the counter upon recognizing our American accents explained the different terms they had for coffee here (a long black = an americano, a white coffee means milk added).

We went to the Australian Open yesterday and saw an incredible 5 set match between Juan Martin Del Potro and our fellow countryman James Blake.  Blake took him to a 5th set that he eventually lost 10-8.  We were by far the rowdiest people in the stands and got some USA chants going multiple times throughout the match.  If Roddick faces Del Potro in the quarterfinals, we are preparing to bring the biggest USA flag we can find.

We played some tackle football on the 2nd day there and hopefully can do it again.  Unfortunately we are all a bit beat up with strawberries and sore/bruised spots all over.  My knees ooze after each shower.  It’s not a pretty sight.

I forgot my contacts and plan to learn how to surf so I am going to the mall where I saw an optometrist sign and see if I can figure some way for them to give me contacts.  I will update this some more in a few days.

Who posted the following:

I don’t know how to do the EV calcs but I’ll throw some numbers out there.

The Pats 4th down conversion rate on the year was around 78%.
If the Pats convert, they win. If they don’t, they lose around 85% of the time based on the momentum of the game and giving up good field positioning to the Colts.

If they punt, they win around 80% of the time. Even the great Peyton Manning would have a tough time going 70-75 yards with only one timeout.

Why give the Colts a real good chance to win the game 1/4th the time when they can just punt it and win 80% of the time?

My numbers might be slightly off, but they’re close.

Bad call.

I think those numbers you are using are way off.

A 4th and 2 conversion rate for the Pats since Tom Brady took over has been 78% but the league rate is 60%.  Given that the Colts are a significantly above average defense, we can take a number somewhere in between.

After punting, an average NFL team in the Colts shoes is going to score 30% of the time.  If the conversion fails, an average NFL team is going to score 53% of the time.

Here is the link to stats – http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

I think there are a couple errors in the methodology:

1) 4th and 2 conversion rate needs to be adjusted to above 60%

2) the 30% and 53% figures need to be increased because the offense is more potent than the defense

Overall, however, this results in a similar conclusion as the poster comes to, or one that favors Belichick’s decision even more.

Here’s an excerpt from Dan Baum talking about New Orleans.

“It’s the American way to focus on the future—we are dreamers and schemers, always chasing the horizon. Looking forward has made us great, but it comes at a price. (Mexican immigrants often describe life in the United States as puro reloj, or “nothing but the clock.”) New Orleanians, on the other hand, are excellent at the lost art of living in the moment. Étienne stopped at our house one afternoon to drop off some papers he wanted me to see.

No, he said, he couldn’t stay; someone was waiting for him downtown. But we got to talking, and gradually moved to the chairs on the porch. We had a beer. The shadows lengthened as the day cooled, the jasmine across the street smelled sweet, and a few houses away someone was practicing the saxophone. Margaret brought out a dish of almonds. We all had another beer. It was dark by the time Étienne left. And here’s the true miracle of New Orleans: the person waiting for him downtown no doubt had an equally pleasant couple of hours, and Étienne surely paid no social penalty for being late.”

Well done Rasputin for guessing the lyrics from here comes the sun by the beatles.

So I’ve randomly decided I’m going to title some blog posts with lyrics from a song.  Try to guess the artist/song.  No cheating/googling please.

One of my friends who went to school in the south always insists on how much better everything is down there including the weather, people, food, culture, etc..  I always argue with him and tell him to stop being biased.  I’m not yet willing to concede that the south is a better place to live but my friend is definitely right on one front.  Simply put, people are nicer down there.

I was in suburban Atlanta for a few days this past weekend for my cousin’s engagement party.  This is the second time in the past year I’ve been down there and I’ve been overwhelmed by how friendly everyone is.  We’ve eaten out maybe four or five times and all of these were pretty ordinary restaurants.  The service at each restaurant was incredible.  They seemed to go out of their way to make us feel comfortable and at home.  I’ve had awesome service at some top NYC restaurants but it was awesome in a different way.  It was more geared towards extensive knowledge of the menu, wine list, etc. rather than friendliness.  I don’t know what it is but you should take a trip to the south if you’ve never been there and you’ll notice it too.

It’s only 15 games into the season.  We have a great team.  There is no need to even bring up talk of firing or demotions to AAA (with the exception of Gary Sheffield and Livan Hernandez).

I was sent this link by a friend – http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2009/04/23/2009-04-23_mets_eye_major_shakeup.html

“Now, a more significant shakeup may be looming, with coaches on the firing line and Mike Pelfrey’s, Oliver Perez’s or John Maine’s rotation spot perhaps in jeopardy, the Daily News has learned.”

I find it laughable that three guys who are very clearly better than Livan Hernandez have their spots in jeopardy.  What about Livan?  The league hit over .340 against him the past couple of years.  He had a 1.667 whip last year.  Watching him pitch yesterday was painful.  There was simply no chance he was ever going to get Albert Pujols out.  He’s like the unathletic coach who tried to throw batting practice in little league.  Now, I have nothing against Livan Hernandez as he’s had a tremendous career and a memorable playoff start with the Marlins but let’s wake up and understand that Pelfrey, Perez, and Maine are a solid notch up from Livan Hernandez.

Also, Oliver Perez was the guy most pollsters wanted sent down to AAA.  Let’s assume that Pelfrey, Perez, and Maine are all of close to equal skill level for 2009.  Baseball prospectus’ projections confirm this.  Why would you want the most inconsistent guy to be the one pitcher who gets sent down out of three pitchers who are going to post approx. 4.0-4.4 era’s?  I’ll take the guy with the most variance and least consistency everytime.  Why?  Because you can pull the plug on him early on days where it looks like he simply doesn’t have it and let him work deep into the game when he’s got his good stuff.  For argument’s sake, let’s take two pitchers who if they started every game would pitch 200 innings and end the year with a 4.2 ERA.  One guy goes 6 1/3 and give up 3 runs every game.  The other guy is Oliver Perez.  He’ll get rocked in the first inning some days and he’ll pitch a complete game shutout other days.  You could probably take the worst manager in baseball and have him manage Oliver to a sub 4.0 era.  Sure, you’ll need more innings out of the bullpen, but you can’t have five Johans on your team.

Why must websites insist on forcing you to answer one of their security questions?  This is almost always a bigger security risk than simply not having them.  No one is going to guess my password.  Ever.  It’s got funny symbols and is not a word and adheres to all criteria required for a strong password.  I am the only person on this planet that knows it.  However, there are probably 100 people who know my first car, 10000000 people who know my mother’s maiden name, etc. etc.  I have stopped answering these questions accurately so hackers don’t even bother.

As previously mentioned, I’m a huge fan of pizza and am on a mission to try out pretty much every top pizza place in NYC.  A friend, who has equally good taste in pizza, told me there was a new place that opened up a couple of years ago in Carroll Gardens so we went to check it out yesterday.  Every pizza is made by the same guy.  I think it opens at 6 and you have to be there on the dot to put your name down or you won’t get a table.  If you show up at 7, they will be booked for the night.

Usually what happens with me is I’ll end up going to Patsy’s or Grimaldi’s or Lombardi’s and I will have a spectacular pizza and then start to question if that is indeed the best pizza I’ve ever had.  I’ve never done good pizza back to back to back or anything so the taste isn’t remembered enough for me to determine which is the best.  The pizza I had at Lucali’s is hands down the best I’ve ever had.  I still have not been to Di Fara’s in Brooklyn (it’s a trek) but I’ve tried all the other popular NYC places.  Lucali’s is a solid notch above the rest and probably a 1/2 notch above Grimaldi’s.  If you live in NYC, you absolutely must go here.  If you are visiting NYC, you must go here.