You know when you swallow water down the wrong pipe or a little crust of bread hits your throat in the wrong spot and you start coughing?  I think the most annoying and frustrating part is when someone asks are you OK and even though you will be perfectly fine in one minute, getting out that “I’m fine” is just so difficult to do.

I love pizza and sometimes I will eat the crust and sometimes I won’t.  Inevitably there’s always that person who will be absolutely appalled if they see me not eating the crust.  “The crust is the best part!”  Well, if that was true then you would just eat pizza crust.  Clearly a dull tasting cooked pizza dough is more exciting then fresh melted mozzarella and tangy marinara sauce.  I mean compare the ratio of people who eat just the “pizza” to those that eat just the crust.  I don’t really know anyone who cuts off the pizza and throws it out just to eat the crust.  It reminds me of those stuffed crust pizza commercials.

So a few of you readers wanted to know my thoughts on the K-Rod signing and the J.J. Putz trade.  Sorry it’s taken me so long to get this up but I was on vacation for the past week (more on this later).

I think I can be tolerant of the K-Rod signing even though there are a lot of problems with it.  The reason for this is that the Mets will win more games with K-Rod than without him.  I think most experts are rating the signing as adding 3 to 4 wins.  I’ve never spent the time to develop any sort of algorithm that will rate how many wins a signing like this adds but common sense tells you that K-Rod will be pitching innings previously pitched by Luis Ayala, Duaner Sanchez, Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, and Pedro Feliciano.  He’s better than each of these pitchers and should add value to the team.  There are a few problems I have with the signing though:

 1)  K-Rod is on the decline.  http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rodrifr03.shtml.  He is consistently increasing his WHIP while decreasing his K/9 rate.  He posted the worst WHIP, and second worst K/9 and BB/9 rates in his career last year.  The last two years have been the two worst years of his career.  These are not good signs when you sign a pitcher to a four year contract.

2)  Paying money for a top closer is usually not the best use of money.  It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that a guy who pitches 200 innings in a year will be considerably more important than a guy who pitches 65 innings in a year.  I think because of the way the Mets collapsed and the big market they play in, management felt too much pressure to sign a front line closer.

3)  We gave up a first round draft pick.  The farm system is in absolute shambles.  I guess Omar has just given up at this point.

The J.J. Putz trade I was initially indifferent about but I’ve come around to like it.  There are two things that I thought about that made me change my mind about this trade.  The first is that I looked at his splits last year.  After coming back from his injury, Putz pitched sub 3.0 ERA baseball since August 1.  This makes me believe that his mediocre season was definitely more due to his injury than his overall ability declining.  The other reason I came around to like this trade is that if you look at it, the Mets really didn’t give up anyone who can’t be replaced by a guy who can be expected to perform about as well.  While Endy Chavez, Aaron Heilman, and Joe Smith all have their uses, you can always find guys like this around.

In football news, I think the Giants made a terrible tactical error that fortunately did not come back to bite when they chose to kick the extra point after scoring a TD to make it 21-19.  Let’s look at all possible scenarios and see whether going for two is better, about the same, or worse.

We need to make one assumption here which is that we can expect the Giants to make the two point conversion about 50% of the time.  This is about what the historical NFL average has been in recent years (51% in each of the last two).  The way the Giants were playing, I would believe the actual estimate to be slightly > 50% but I’ll prove that even assuming against myself, I am still correct.

Scenarios:

1) Nobody scores any more points.  Advantage going for two.  Going for two will increase Giants chances of winning by 25% (half the time you make 2 pt convo and win half of OT games).

2) Only the Giants score more points.  Neutral.  Giants win either way.  (sure if they miss the 2 point conversion and get a safety, now they only tie instead of win but that happens like 1/100 times).

3) Only Carolina scores more points.  Neutral.  Giants lose either way.

4) Giants and Carolina both score a FG.  Advantage going for two.  If Giants kick the PAT, they lose 100% of the time 24-23.  If the Giants go for two, they will win 25% of the time (make it 50% and win 50% of OT games).

5) Giants and Carolina both score a TD.  Neutral.  If Giants kick the PAT, they will go for two the next time.  50% of the time the game goes to overtime and 50% of the time the Giants lose.  If the Giants go for two the first time, 50% of the time they will make it and send the game to overtime and 50% of the time they will miss and lose.

6) Giants score a FG and a TD and Carolina scores only a TD.  Advantage kicking PAT.  If the Giants kick the PAT, they will win every time 30-28.  If the Giants go for two and make, they will win every time.  If the Giants go for two and miss however, Carolina can now go for two and tie the game at 29-29 if they make it.  This increases Carolina’s chances of winning the game by 12.5%.  (need the Giants to miss, need Carolina to make, and win half the time in OT).

(Note that this scenario will also happen with similar results if each team scores 2 TD’s and the Giants score an additional FG but this is very unlikely.)

7) Carolina scores 2 FG’s and Giants score a TD.  Advantage going for two.  Kicking PAT will result in an overtime game and 50% of the time Giants will win.  Kicking 2 point convo will result in 50% Giants win and 50% chance to force another OT with a two point make.  Giants chances to win increase by 12.5% by going for two.

Giants score two TD’s and Carolins scores a TD and a FG.  Neutral.  The Giants will win this game in every scenario (PAT make, 2 pt convo miss or make).

Now, for kicking the PAT to be correct, scenario number 6 has to happen 5 TIMES AS OFTEN as the COMBINED chances of EITHER scenario 1 or 4 or 7 happening.  While I do believe scenario 6 to be likelier than 1 and 4 and 7, I don’t think the multiple will be > 5.

There are so many other possibilities to consider like missed PAT’s, safeties, etc. but these are very unlikely (< 2%).  After spending the time to write this up, I think it’s much closer than I initially thought but I’m convinced if I spent a week doing a legitimate statistical study that included probabilities for how many possessions each team will have and the percentage chances that a possession results in a td/fg/safety, etc. I think going for 2 will be proven to be superior.

I really think the word vegetarian is a really big misnomer.  For some reason, people think that a vegetarian eats vegetables.  Well, a vegetarian does eat vegetables.  However, so does a non-vegetarian.  The number of servings of vegetables I consume in a day is probably slightly less than that of a non-vegetarian.  While this might not be true for most people, there’s also a big fundamental flaw in thinking that a vegetarian eats vegetables instead of meat.  The biggest nutrient in meat that a vegetarian misses out on is definitely protein and maybe to a lesser extent stuff like iron and vitamin B.  The latter can easily be obtained through other non-vegetable means or vitamins.  The former, however, is what is replaced by things such as dairy, soy products, nuts, legumes, eggs, etc.  This is probably the biggest difference in the diet of a vegetarian and a non-vegetarian.  It’s not about the vegetables…

Fruit is absolutely incredible and very healthy.  I’m willing to bet that a lot of you also have no idea how great fruit is.  You’ve probably eaten an apple with lunch and drank some OJ in your life and think you know all there is to know about fruit.  Apples are probably one of the most boring fruits.  Hopefully try some new fruits after reading this and you’re in for a wonderful treat.

Canteloupe - My guess is you’ve probably never cut a canteloupe or eaten one fresh.  You’ve maybe eaten a few pieces out of a fruit salad.  You are really missing out.  Go to the store and buy a canteloupe.  Actually, get two.  The real trick in canteloupe is to wait a few days after you buy it to let it ripen.  This will really let the flavor out and turn the slight bitterness you might have tasted in that fruit salad into delicious sweetness.  Wait until the outside turns from a greenish tinge to a light white color.  It will also start to smell really sweet.  Then, cut it and enjoy.

Kiwi - Similar to canteloupe and most fruits, you have to really let it ripen.  Also, the quality of kiwi really varies greatly.  I had some a couple weeks ago that was really wrinkled on the outside and didn’t taste that great even after it ripened a bit.  I got some organic kiwi made in california from Whole Foods this past week and it was absolutely incredible.  Before you cut it, feel the outside.  It should give slightly but not too much.  I actually prefer my kiwi slightly less than ripe.  When you cut it open, if there are two different shades of green, one darker and somewhat translucent, that means you let it ripen too much (some people like it this way but I prefer it a little more sour and tangy).  A simple way to eat it is to cut it in half w/ a knife and scoop out the flesh with a spoon.

Berries - You’ve probably tried these and know how good they are.  Strawberries, raspberries and blackberries are all great and packed with antioxidants.  Eat them quickly after purchasing.

Honeydew - See the advice above for canteloupe.  A slightly sweeter taste than canteloupe.

Galia melon -Looks kinda like a canteloupe from the outside.  Follow the same advice.  Tastes kinda like a cross between honeydew and canteloupe.

Watermelon - Same advice.  Let it ripen!

Pomegranate - This fruit is incredibly tedious to eat and messy.  It’s also somewhat of an acquired taste.  I like to lightly salt it after peeling and removing the fruit f/ the rind.

Mango - I like mango a bit less ripe than most people also.  I eat it when the flesh is more yellow than orange.  Another absolutely delicious fruit, especially if you get it in season.

Passion fruit - I actually didn’t get to try this until about three years ago.  It’s very sour, tangy, and tart.  I don’t get to eat this too often.

Pineapple - Tedious to cut but once you get the hang of it, it’s not too bad.  I think the quality varies a lot depending on where and when you get it.  I’m unfortunately not an expert on tips about when to cut or what to look for when buying.

I’m going to add some more fruits when I have time to make another post but if you haven’t tried any of these fruits, or even if you’ve tried them but never purchased one fresh, I highly recommend it.

Here’s a screenshot of my first 5,000 hands of my 20k.  I’m definitely running hot but I also feel like I’m getting better at the game.  While I’ve probably played 10,000 or so hands of PLO before I started this challenge, I never really got into a groove where I played them consecutively and focused on thinking about the game.  It’s easy to get complacent when you’re really good at one game but you need to take a step back and think about how you got good at that game in the first place.  For me, that involved thinking about NLHE, posting hands on strategy forums, talking to other players about interesting hands, running equity simulations, etc.  I’ve done all that with PLO and while it’s only 5,000 hands of running hot, I think the results have shown in my understanding of the game.

I really think this is my favorite holiday weekend of the year.  This year didn’t disappoint either.  Reasons why in no particular order:

1) Fantastic shopping

2) Football on TV all four days

3) Getting to see family and friends I sometimes haven’t seen in a long time

4) Said family and friends are off (usually) from work

I really think Thanksgiving is a a holiday you don’t fully come to appreciate until you are older.  As a kid, it’s simply a time that you get off from school and you get to see your family that you see pretty regularly anyway.  However, as you grow older you end up making more friends and interact in many different social circles.  You may have high school friends, college friends, friends from a retreat you went on, co-workers, and also new family friends you might now be closer to. Inevitably you end up losing touch with a lot of these people as you grow older.  Thanksgiving is fantastic time that brings a lot of these people together once again.

Jay and I came to NYC last night (nope, still not moved in yet though hopefully this week) and decided to do dinner at Masa with a couple of our other friends.  For those who don’t know, Masa is probably the most expensive restaurant in NYC.  The prix fixe menu starts at $485 a person and doesn’t include gratuity or drinks.  While the food was very good, all things being considered, I was incredibly disappointed with the meal.  It wasn’t just a vegetarian thing either as the other guys definitely agreed that the meal was pretty unspectacular comapred to other nice meals we’ve had for a fraction of the cost.  I was expecting a stellar neverending desert similar to what we had at Per Se, but they simply brought out a bowl of fruit (it was delicious) and asked if there was anything else we wanted.  I assumed they were just asking if we needed another bottle of sake or something and expected them to come back with some incredible desert but they came back a minute later with the check.  Not even factoring in the cost, I still would not put this up there as a top 50 meal I’ve had.

As an aside, while we were in Copenhagen last winter, we ate at three fantastic restaurants.  Noma and Geranium are on my top 5 list and Paustian is not too far behind.  It’s weird that NYC is considered (it is right?) to be the world capital when it comes to fine dining.  I’ve probably eaten at around 200-300 NYC restaurants in my life and only a couple come close to the meals we had in Copenhagen.  Albeit it’d be unfair to compare a $40 meal in NYC with a $250 meal in Copenhagen but even the cream of the crop of NYC restaurants like Per Se and Masa have a tough time comparing to the restaurants we went to in Copenhagen.  What gives?

BCS Title Game - Florida v. Oklahoma (no changes)

Rose Bowl - PSU vs USC (with Oregon St. losing, USC now wins the pac-10)

Orange Bowl - Cincinnati vs. Boston College (no changes, I think BC beats Va. tech.  sorry ariel)

Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs. Ohio St. (With only one team out of the SEC going to a BCS bowl game because of Oregon St.’s loss, another spot opens up.  I think the BCS will pick OSU over Boise St. even though Boise St is ranked higher.  They are more concerned about money than picking a more deserving team)

Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Utah (no changes) 

The ACC is a mess and Florida is tough to call because of tough games at FSU and vs. Alabama in the SEC title game but I’ll give it a go.

BCS Title Game:  Florida vs. Oklahoma - This assumes both teams run the table which is a tough road for Florida but I think they will get it done.  The human polls already have Oklahoma ranked over Texas and I think the computers might give them the edge or make it close enough that the cumulative BCS ranking for Oklahoma will be higher than that of Texas.  Out of conference wins over TCU and Cincinnati will help their SOS.  It’s unfortunate considering Texas beat Oklahoma but that game was so long ago.  Oklahoma looked real good yesterday against Texas Tech.

Rose Bowl:  Penn St. vs. Oregon St. -  A rematch of a blowout game early in the season.  I think Oregon St. wins at home against Oregon to clinch the Pac-10.  They have been playing better of late and I think this game will be more competitive than people think.

Orange Bowl:  Boston College vs. Cincinnati - This might pair up two of the weakest BCS teams in history.

Sugar Bowl:  Alabama vs. Utah -  I think Alabama will definitely maintain a strong enough ranking to get an at-large bid and Utah gets an automatic one.

Fiesta Bowl:  USC vs. Texas:  I think both teams get the nod over OSU and Boise St. for the final at large bids.  It makes sense to schedule these two teams together considering the rematch implications and the fact that this will probably shape up to be the second best game after the title game.  I could also see them flip flopping USC and Utah.  It’d be a nice change of pace to see USC face an SEC squad.  I’m sick of seeing them beat up on overrated Big-10 teams.

I stumbled upon the BCS page and it’s pretty hilarious.  They seem to be trying to get as many pro-BCS/anti-playoff articles written as possible.  The following article is pretty pathetic in that the only arguments he makes for the BCS all assume that a playoff would use the current system in determining who the top 8 teams are: 

 http://www.usatoday.com/sports/columnist/lopresti/2008-11-17-college-playoff_N.htm

So buddy, what’s a bigger problem…

Teams being snubbed from playing in the title game or teams being snubbed from being one of eight playoff teams?

Right now we could have a scenario where Texas plays for the national title without even PLAYING in the big 12 title game (Florida over Alabama and Missouri over Oklahoma would probably cause this).

We also have a virtual impossibility of a non-BCS school ever having a shot to play for the national championship.

I think it’s kind of cool that Barack Obama is lobbying to get a playoff system in place.

Edit:  I didn’t look at any other predictions until after I published this but it looks like CBS’s predictions match mine - http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

I’m going to make a legitimate effort to learn PLO.  I think I’m definitely a winning player at like 5/10 but I’m not sure if I can beat 25/50.  My goal is to play 20,000 hands by the end of the year.  I will also post as many interesting hands as possible on the PLO Forum at www.deucescracked.com.  I will post a screenshot of how I’m doing at the 5k/10k/15k/20k marks.  In playing PLO recently, I’ve found that the biggest thing I have going for me are my NLHE skills.  A lot of the important concepts in NLHE that I understand really well apply to PLO as well.  In NLHE news, I’ve mostly been playing HU 10/20-50/100.  I think I’m probably up about $110k in the past month or so.  I’ve also dabbled a bit in some good 200/400 games and 500/1000 sharing action.  The games have been unreal good and after losing 5 straight all-ins where I got it in as a statistical favorite at rail heaven, I finally got to win a few. 

 At the gym on Monday my trainer had me bench press to determine my one rep max.  I was able to do 135 lbs which I was pretty happy with considering I weigh 122 lbs.  I had steadily been putting on weight and muscle for a while but the past month and a half I feel like I’ve plateaued.  I’ve definitely gotten stronger but I just haven’t put on any more weight.  I’m going to have to make a better effort at increasing my calorie intake in a healthy way.  Anyone with experience on this, please give me some insight.

In baseball news, one of my readers asked me what I thought about the Yankees and C.C. Sabathia.  I think he’s a terrific pitcher who seems to be maintaining or improving upon his production.  The Yankees will inevitably end up overpaying for him which is the case with most free agents but they can afford it and need a starting pitcher pretty badly.  The Mets on the other hand will probably not make any big signings other than possibly signing K-Rod.  I think this would be a bad move.  Looking at K-Rod’s statistics, everyone seems to focus too much on his 60+ saves last year.  However, if you look at some of the more important statistics such as WHIP, ERA, and K’s/9, K-Rod is already on a steady decline.  I want no piece of him.

In other news, Jay and I are looking to move into a sweet condo in NYC in a few days.  We elected to pay a full year’s rent up front because it got us a better deal.  Since it’s a condo and not an apartment, we also had to go through an application process to be approved by a board associated with the building we are going to live in.  The process is the most annoying, time consuming, extraneous nonsense I’ve had to go through in a while.  We have to get letters from our CPAs, multiple personal AND professional reference letters, copies of our bank statements and photo IDs, and a rundown of exactly where our assets lie and what our liabilities are.  The process is further complicated by the fact that Jay is in Seattle, I’m in NJ, and our broker is in NYC.  I would understand having to do all of this if we were applying for a loan, but we’ve already pre-paid a full year’s rent up front and also have been approved by the owner!